Ask what a change would do, in plain words
Your operation is already on screen. Point at the site under pressure and type the move you are weighing up. The simulation starts from there.
One working model of how your business behaves, built from the data your systems already produce. Simulate a move against it and you get the outcome, the knock-on and the cost before you commit to anything.
The recording below follows a single change through that operation, step by step. It is one illustration of the three capabilities below rather than a definition of the product: the same questions are asked in pricing, portfolio and revenue work.
Your operation is already on screen. Point at the site under pressure and type the move you are weighing up. The simulation starts from there.
It pulls the moves open to you and the plan you already committed to, so the prediction runs on your operation rather than an industry average.
How busy the line already is, how much of the plan is actually being made, and whether anything on the ground would stop this move working at all.
What the move does to your service level, how likely it is to help at all, what it costs and what it earns back, over a period you set.
Where the site you are protecting ends up against plan, what the move does to everyone downstream of it, and where you land at the end.
The same move simulated against no action at all: the day it pays for itself, what it earns, what it costs and what you keep.
Ergodic platform demo: a working model of a manufacturing and distribution business. An analyst types a change in plain language, adding overtime at a plant that is struggling, against the live picture of the operation. The model finds what it needs on its own, the options available and the plan already committed to, checks how busy the line is and how much of that plan is being made, then plays the change forward: what it does to service, how likely it is to help, what it costs and earns back, what happens to every site downstream, and the return against doing nothing, including the day it pays for itself.
One model of how your business behaves, and three questions you can put to it. Atlas holds what is true right now. Root Cause Analysis works out why something changed. Equinox plays a proposed action forward to show what might happen if you take it. Nothing here is specific to one industry.
A supplier is running late and a major customer is about to miss their orders. Here is the same problem seen three ways: what is true now, why it is happening, and what to do about it. Open any marker to see what the platform is doing at that point.
Nothing here is drawn by hand. Your orders, shipments and stock positions build the picture, and it updates itself as new records arrive.
Every supplier, route and site carries its real numbers. Supplier B takes 18 days in practice, against the 14 days the contract promises.
A list of records cannot tell you what a problem will hit next. Knowing that this route feeds this warehouse, which supplies this customer, which carries this share of your margin, can.
What actually happened stays attached, so the model uses how Route 7 really performs rather than the transit time written in the plan.
The model runs your operation forward and sees Account North missing orders next Thursday, then works backwards from there, testing each possible cause against the evidence.
Because the model runs your operation forward, the failure shows up while it is still a week away. A dashboard reports the same thing on Friday, once the truck is already late.
Plant output is within range this week, so that branch is ruled out by its own evidence. Cover at DC Central is falling faster than throughput explains, so the search continues down the route.
Supplier B's observed lead time moved four days three weeks ago and never moved back. Everything downstream follows from that, and the claim is checkable in one line.
Every move your rules allow is run against the same picture of the business. The scores below are what actually happened in those runs, not points from a scoring rule.
Each option was played forward to the end of the period. The score is where those runs landed against what you care about, which is why two options that cost the same can rank far apart.
Air-freight recovers nearly the same service for more than four times the money. The model shows both numbers rather than hiding the option, because sometimes that account is worth it.
Each score opens up. Follow it back and you see every step it took, so a planner can argue with one step rather than with the tool.
Illustrative figures. For a decision worked end to end, with the console and the scenario comparison, see how EWMs work.
Four decision types run through everything below: a forecast, a price, a launch, and the report on why a number moved. The Use Cases page shows the same four grouped by the team that owns them.
Demand, cover and cash rolled forward with the spread around them, so a plan can be stress-tested rather than argued.
Each candidate price played forward through demand, capacity and the accounts it touches, with the trade-off shown rather than assumed.
Cannibalisation, pre-build and the stock you're left holding, modelled before the commitment date rather than counted after it.
A monthly review where each movement traces to a cause and its evidence, instead of a pack assembled by hand the week before.
Starting cut of four decision types. The final set will be agreed with the wider team.
Ergodic evaluated its approach on four public benchmarks that anyone can inspect. Three run a decision out over days or months rather than a single turn; the fourth measures how accurately a fault is traced to its cause. They measure agent performance, not prediction accuracy. Here are the headline numbers, with the method and caveats on each.
Live incidents repaired by smaller models, 47% to 100%
Right service named first, 79.4% to 90.6%
Net assets at the end of the month, 11 of 13 paired runs
Cash after 91 simulated days, across 180 runs
Bring one decision that's expensive to get wrong. We'll build the model around it and show you the options, the knock-on effects and the workings in a session with your team.
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