New product demand
Forecasts for launches with long hardware lead times and almost no sales history.
10%+ more accurate launch forecasts
5 to 15% less launch inventory risk
5 to 15% less launch inventory risk
Use cases · Operations
Forecasts that hold up, including launches with no history.
You need a number you can commit stock and capacity against. The hardest ones are new products, where there is little or no sales history to learn from.
Why it is hard today.
A statistical forecast needs a past to extrapolate. A launch does not have one, so planners fall back on judgement and analogues chosen by hand.
Forecast error is usually reported after the quarter, which is too late to change what was ordered or built.
How Ergodic helps.
01
Model the drivers
Demand is modelled against the things that move it: price, promotions, channel, seasonality and comparable products.
02
Run it forward
The forecast comes with its spread, so you can plan against the range and see where the uncertainty sits.
03
Grade it
Every forecast is checked against what actually happened, and the model updates as the quarter moves.
Results.
From delivered projects with enterprise customers.
What you get.
Accuracy
Better launch forecasts
Risk
Less inventory committed to a guess
Trust
Every number carries its assumptions
Talk to an expert about your forecasts.
Bring a decision. We'll discuss how to model it and what data a simulation would need.
Talk To An Expert