Should we commit $400M moreto memory chip inventory?
Illustrative scenario. Memory chips are being discontinued. Prices are up tenfold, with no sign of easing, and you still ship products that need them. This is one decision, worked end to end, so you can see what a world model does with a call this size. The company, the figures and the console are worked examples rather than a customer account.
It's the memory inside the things you ship, and it's disappearing.
These memory chips aren't the newest, that's the problem. Chipmakers are abandoning them to build pricier memory for AI. The supply you depend on is being redirected to the data centres, and what's left is getting scarce and expensive fast.
Memory chip spot price since early 2025, a part that used to be an afterthought.
Of 2024's memory chip output still being made. The rest of the capacity went to AI memory.
Earliest that analysts expect any meaningful relief on supply.
Waiting is dangerous. So is overcommitting.
Wait, and supply vanishes, there's no dip coming. Overbuy, and a softening market leaves you holding millions in a part your own roadmap is retiring.
The real call is never buy or wait. It's balancing supply, demand, risk and working capital at once, which is why a price chart can't answer it and a spreadsheet can only hold one version of it.
The price chart can't answer this. Your business can.
One shock lands in five places at once, and each one moves the others. That's what the model holds while a person can't.
Procurement
Commit cash now, or gamble on waiting
Inventory
Over-buy ages into write-offs; under-buy runs dry
Production
No chips, no product, the line stops
Commitments
Orders you've already promised customers
Cash & margin
Where every move finally nets out
Change one, and you change all five. That's a decision, not a calculation.
The decision, inside the console.
One picture of the business, every move scored against it, and the chain of cause behind each number. Every figure can be followed back, step by step.
The $400M call, and what it costs
Console mock-up. Figures are from the worked scenario below.
Every move, side by side.
| Scenario | Cash | Stockout | Write-off | Served |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wait & see | $255M | 38.5% | $0M | 61% |
| Buy everything | $515M | 0% | $112M | 100% |
| Ergodic's picksecure enough now, hedge the rest | $387M | 5.8% | $20M | 98% |
Secure enough now, hedge the rest. Supply is exiting, so waiting is a trap. But demand is uncertain, so buying everything strands capital in a part your own roadmap is retiring. Ergodic secures about 96% of a year's need now, phases a small slice as a demand hedge, and protects your highest-margin customers first.
Against buying everything: $128M less cash committed and $92M less write-off, for two percentage points less service, 100% against 98%. Against waiting: stockout risk falls from 38.5% to 5.8% and a $323M line-down exposure comes off the table. Every figure can be followed back, step by step.
Run your next big call in simulation first.
Bring us the decision that keeps you up at night and watch it play out before you commit.
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