Memory chips are being discontinued. Prices are up 10×. No dip is coming, and you still ship products that need them.
These memory chips aren't the newest, that's the problem. Chipmakers are abandoning them to build pricier memory for AI. The supply you depend on is being redirected to the data centers, and what's left is getting scarce and expensive fast.
Memory chip spot price since early 2025, a part that used to be an afterthought
of 2024's memory chip output still being made, the rest of the capacity went to AI memory
earliest that analysts expect any meaningful relief on supply
Wait, and supply vanishes, there's no dip coming. Overbuy, and a softening market leaves you holding millions in a part your own roadmap is retiring. The real call is never "buy" or "wait", it's balancing supply, demand, risk and working capital at once.
Commit cash now, or gamble on waiting
Over-buy ages into write-offs; under-buy runs dry
No chips, no product, the line stops
Orders you've already promised customers
Where every move finally nets out
Change one, and you change all five. That's a decision, not a calculation.
One state of the world, every move scored against it, and the causal trace behind each number, live in the product. Every figure traces back through the causal graph, node by node.
Secure enough now, hedge the rest. Supply is exiting, so waiting is a trap. But demand is uncertain, so buying everything strands capital in a part your own roadmap is retiring. Ergodic secures ~96% of a year's need now, phases a small slice as a demand hedge, and protects your highest-margin customers first.
Against buy-everything: −$128M cash and −$92M write-off, for only ~6 points less service. Against wait-and-see: it removes a ~$323M line-down exposure and a 38% stockout risk. Every figure traces back through the causal graph, node by node, no black box.
Pose a decision and watch Ergodic work it: grounding in reality, simulating demand, cascading the consequences, then ranking the moves.
Grounds the decision in what's true: the memory chip supply exit and price spike, your real demand history, the orders you've promised, and the cash on hand.
Bring us the decision that keeps you up at night and watch it play out before you commit.
Talk To An Expert